Pending Sales May Be Your Secret Weapon To Accurate Pricing

How Pending Sales Help You Price a Listing Right the First Time

Have you had an appraisal come in below the contract price on a recent listing? You’re probably not the only one. When you set a list price using only closed sales, you’re looking in the rear‑view mirror. Those sales show what buyers paid several months ago—not what they’re willing to pay today. In this post, I thought I would share with you how adding pending sales to your analysis can help you see where the market is likely headed rather than just looking at where it was several weeks or months ago.

What Exactly Is a “Pending” Sale?

Contract Signed, Keys Not Yet Swapped

“Pending,” “U/C,” or “contingent” listings have a fully executed purchase agreement. The inspection clock is ticking, the lender has ordered the appraisal (that’s where I step in), but the deed isn’t recorded and the MLS still flags the status as under contract.

Why the Industry Watches Them

• Contracts speak to today’s demand.
• Closings lag 30–60 days, sometimes more if financing hits speed bumps.
• Mortgage rates, inventory, and even social media‑driven buyer sentiment can change in a month—pendings reflect this activity.

Closed Sales Lag—Pendings Lead

The Built‑In Delay

A March 1 contract might not close until late April. By then:

1. Rates could move 50–75 basis points.
2. A new round of housing inventory could hit the market.
3. Economic news—jobs reports and inflation scares can spook buyers.

Your “fresh” comparables are suddenly old news.

Data that Proves the Point

According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), pending home sales jumped 6.1 % in March 2025, the biggest one‑month change since December 2023. Meanwhile, existing‑home sales fell 5.9 % the same month—further proof that contracts lead and closings follow.

Appraiser’s View: How We Use Pending Sales (Even When We’re Handcuffed to Closings)

USPAP Rules, Reality, and Work‑Arounds

Under USPAP, I can’t hang my final opinion of value on an unclosed sale alone. But pendings can still be taken into consideration when reconciling a final appraisal value:

If agents use the same methods appraisers use, which include considering pending sales, the likelihood of a big difference between contract price and appraisal value is reduced.

Deep Dive: Where to Find, Filter, and Interpret Pending Data

1. MLS Dashboards & Saved Searches

1. Status = Pending/Contingent.
2. Sort by Contract Date (Desc)—newest first.
3. Export columns: List Price, Contract Date, DOM, SQ FT.
4. Pro tip: If your MLS masks the final contract price, watch the DOM‑to‑pending trend; shorter DOM at unchanged list price = price strength.

2. Third‑Party Analytics

Not all MLS services have the same analytics packages, however, the following are some that your local board may have, with a description of what information they provide:

• InfoSparks (ShowingTime+) – side‑by‑side charts of pending vs. closed.
• Altos Research – daily market reports with pending counts.
• Cloud CMA – “Quick CMA” overlay that pulls the last 10 pendings automatically.

3. DIY Spreadsheet

Create columns for neighborhood, price, # of pendings, median list price, and average DOM. Paste your MLS export every Monday. A rolling four‑week graph shouts the trend louder than any headline.

4. Agent‑to‑Agent Intel

Your MLS may hide concessions and contract prices until closing. Solution: Pick up the phone. Listing agents often share numbers if you reciprocate later. Local Facebook groups and brokerage Slack channels are possibilities, too.

The How‑To: Turning Pending Intelligence Into Listing Success

Step 1 – Blend Pendings into Every CMA

Closed comps anchor value. Pendings are the tuning fork. In your CMA, create a separate section titled “Current Buyer Activity” and drop the five freshest pendings there.

Step 2 – Examples of Seller Conversation

1. Show: “Here are the three most recent pending contracts—notice they jumped at 100 % of list in under a week.”
2. Explain: “The closed sale next door was negotiated back in February when rates were higher. Today’s buyers are slightly more aggressive.”
3. Conclude: “Pricing at $439 k positions us within the current view of the  market as opposed to looking in the rearview mirror.”

Step 3 – Apply in Negotiations

With buyers: “Yes, you could offer 2 % under list, but look—six similar homes went pending in five days at full price.”
With sellers: “Appraisal‑gap clause? Here’s why it’s justified—contracts trending 3 % above last month’s closed comps.”

Step 4 – Monitor Post‑List

Keep tabs on what’s happening. If new pendings leapfrog your list price by >2 %, prepare a price increase email (rare but effective in hot streaks). If pendings suddenly sag, you may want a strategy shift, staging tweak, or price realignment.

FAQ: Your Pending‑Sales Cheat Sheet

Q: Do pendings ever fall through?
A: About 15–17 % do nationally. That’s why you review status weekly and pull back‑on‑market properties out of your trend sheet.

Q: My MLS hides contract price. How do I gauge real numbers?
A: Track DTP (Days To Pending) and list‑to‑pending ratios. A drop from 14 days to 5 days is a sure sign the market is heating up. Also, cultivate relationships—colleagues share intel if you reciprocate.

Q: Won’t appraisers ignore pendings if they’re not “real” comps?
A: We can’t use them as primary sold comps, but we can include them as secondary pending sales. If you have a list of pending sales, provide it to the appraiser as support for the contract price.

Q: Is there a seasonality factor?
A: Absolutely. Compare April 2025 to April 2024, not to January 2025. Spring always inflates pendings; summer vacations and holidays deflate them.

Examples That Prove the Point

1. The Over‑Ask

• Closed comps: $512 k median (60‑day‑old contracts).
• Fresh pendings: $525 k median, 7 days DTP.
• Strategy: List at $523 k (split the difference).
• Lesson: Look at closed sales, but also consider pending transactions because they are a reflection of the current market.

2. The “Too Late”

• Agent’s plan: Priced off April closings at $679 k.
• Market reality: Rates spiked; pendings were at $650 k and climbing DOM.
• Outcome: Two months on market, two price cuts, final sale at $645 k.
• Lesson: Ignoring pendings cost $34 k and six weeks of holding costs.

Building Your Weekly “Pending Patrol” Routine

1. Every Monday (15 min) – Update your spreadsheet.
2. Every Listing Appointment (10 min prep) – Pull the five freshest pendings that bracket your property.
3. Every Thursday (10 min) – Scan for pendings that leap over or under your active listings; adjust strategy same day.

Stick to this routine and you’ll always know where the market is headed, not just where it was.

Key Takeaways

• Pending contracts are the housing market’s leading indicator for agents.
• They help you price listings accurately, negotiate confidently, and spot demand shifts early.
• Even when contract prices are masked, Days‑to‑Pending and volume changes reveal momentum.
• Weave pendings into your CMA, seller conversations, buyer advisories, and weekly market watch.

For more deep dives, revisit “Appraisal Comparable Guidelines: A Cheat Sheet for Agents” and “Must‑Have Information Required for a Successful Appraisal”—both will backstop the strategies we’ve discussed today.

Ready for a Data‑Backed Price Check?

If you’ve got a tricky listing—or just want an objective voice—call me. A pre‑listing appraisal that blends fresh pending data with recently closed comps will help price your listing to the current market and reduce the chances that the purchase appraisal will come in lower than the contract price.

A pre-listing appraisal can help you price it right the first time. Contact me at (205) 243‑9304.

Thanks for reading, and as always, let me know if you have any questions.

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